Tropical Storm Warnings POSTED for Baja South Mag Bay to La Paz BCS Mexico

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Friday, August 21, 2020
BULLETIN! BULLETIN! BULLETIN!

* Tropical Storm remnants move into Southern California USA.

*Huricane warnings have been dropped as of 9AM local BCS Time! However, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect, from La Paz to Mag Bay, on the western flank of the peninsula on the Pacific Ocean.

*Baja South will be hit by Hurricane conditions overnight and into Thursday; 

Beware of Heavy rainfall, Flash flooding and Heavy waves on the Pacific coastline, Cabo San Lucas North. Heavy winds and waves from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lucas on the Sea Of Cortez. 8-20

*UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS THIS MORNING>>>8-19

*Tropical Storm Warnings Posted for Baja South Mag Bay to La Paz BCS Mexico; 8-18


Tropical Storm Genevieve Continues Hammering Baja

Genevieve continues to gradually weaken.  Recent microwave images indicate that the storm has become quite asymmetric with the low-level center located on the southern edge of the main area of deep convection.  The decay in the structure of the storm appears to be the result of a combination of southerly wind shear and dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation.  

The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kts, which is near the higher end of the satellite intensity estimates.  Surface observations from the southwestern coast of the Baja South (Baja California Sur) indicate that the storm is still producing tropical-storm-force winds there.


Genevieve has moved a little to the left recently, but a longerterm motion is northwestward at 9 kt.  The weakening storm should continue to move generally northwestward during the next few days at roughly the same forward speed as it remains steered by a low-to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. This track should take the storm gradually away from the Baja Norte (Baja California Mexico) coast.  The NHC track forecast lies very near the multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected due to a combination ofincreasingly southerly wind shear, dry air, and progressivelycooler SSTs.  Genevieve is likely to weaken to a tropicaldepression in a day or so, and it is forecast to degenerate to aremnant low in 36 to 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast liesnear the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for a few more hours over the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve will continue to affect thecoast of the southern and central Baja California peninsula through Friday.



3. After mid-day Thursday, remnants of this tropical storm will impact Southern California of the United States. Creating thunderstorms along the crests of the mountains at the  Sierra San Pedro de Martir, Sierra Juarez, Laguna Mountains, Santa Rosas and into Mount San Gregorio & Mount San Jacinto. 








Baja Weather Service