BAJA Weather Service UPDATES

 

BAJA Weather Service UPDATES

Baja 1000 2022 WXMAN Forecasts; Reports

FLASH FLOOD AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS CANCEL AFTER DAMAGING TWELVE HOURS OF STORM IMPACTS

Most recent Update Wednesday

November 9, 2022; 9PM

Ensenada, BC. 

Forecaster Bert Strong

 

 

Flash flooding began in Baja California Norte as early as 5PM last night, Tuesday, November 8. Overnight, widespread flooding and very high winds covered the balance of the northern Mexico state. Exact damages on the Baja 1000 race course are not known at this hour. Until Wednesday's sunrise reveals the exact damage, lots of mud is guaranteed for next weekends off-road race in Baja Mexico.

  

***LIVE ! ONLINE REPORTING***

 

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STARTING AT 8PM/TUESDAY NIGHT  TO 10AM/WEDNESDAY MORNING - HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON RACE COURSE AREA

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Pictured Tuesday Night, Nov. 8, 9PM, Night Sat. View showing BAJA Storm southern limit near San Quintin. 

Highlighted mountain ridgeline in RED, to the right of the ridgeline is desert, to the left of the line is mountains, then foothills and then, the Pacific coast of Baja California Mexico.

 

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7PM Report from Ensenada HQ; Reports from the north indicate 70 mph wind gusts at high elevations 5k ft.+ with over three inches of rain.

[6:30PM Phone report from a local ranch in the Sierra Juarez]

BWS expects at least 50 mph wind gusts and at least two inches of rain in the highest reaches of the race course area mountains to the east.

At least one inch of rain is forecast in the foothills in and around the race course, overnight, before 10AM Wednesday. 

Two inches of rainfall has already been reported, just outside of Rosarito, in the foothills, near the wine country.

Run-off will cause local area flooding in the foothills of the mountains, east of the mountain crests.

Morning daylight will reveal just how much damage to the race course has been caused by the overnight and morning deluge rainfall and associated flooding. 

 

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6PM Report from north of the race course. Deluge rainfall overwhelming the paved road systems, from the north, into Ensenada.

 

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The BAJA Weather Service says a strong weather system brewed in the North Pacific will impact all or most of the state of Baja California (Norte) and the northern part of the state of Sonora, Mexico.

The jet stream drives polar winds, rains and colder temperatures into Baja California

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCEL

-CANCELS: Wednesday, November 9, 10AM

Warning: Tuesday, November 8, 7PM

Watch: Monday, November 7, 3PM

Flash Flood Warning posted for the entire eastern mountain ridge from La Rumorosa to the lower/southern San Pedro de Martir western mountain slopes, west to the Pacific coast.

Playas de Tijuana to San Quintin.

Flash Flood Warning may be posted here at any time. The Warning means flooding is underway in the area. The Watch means flash flooding is expected.

 

HIGH WIND WARNING CANCEL

-CANCELS: Wednesday, November 9, 10AM 

Warning: Tuesday, November 8, 3PM

Watch: Monday, November 7, 9AM

High Wind Warning Posted from Tijuana to San Quintin for Baja California (Tuesday 2AM-Friday 2AM), coastal areas inland into the deserts of San Felipe.  

High Wind Warning may be posted at any time. The Warning means winds are hitting the area. The Watch means high winds are expected. 

 

Small Craft Advisory Posted

Monday, November 7, 2AM

Small Craft Advisory Posted Offshore US. Border south, Rosarito to Ensenada to Cape of San Quintin, (Tuesday 2AM-Friday 2AM), Coastal Waters out to 30 nm and waters from the US. border, extending 30 to 60 nm out past the Los Coronados and Todos Santos Islands.

 

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT ON PACIFIC COAST  FROM 2AM WEST, MONDAY, Nov. 7; EXTENDED TO 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING

-CANCELS: Wednesday, November 9, 10AM 

Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7 to 12 ft. expected.

Coastal Waters from Playas de Tijuana to Cape of San Quintin to 30 nm, west out to sea.

Began 2AM WEST, Monday, Nov. 7.

Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could   capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.  Strongest winds and highest seas are   expected from late morning through the evening on Tuesday.  

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.

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The second of two storms is headed toward Baja Mexico, now.

The Ensenada municipality and the Baja 1000 race course will get rain, high-elevation snow and powerful winds this week when the first major storm of this fall-winter surges through the Baja racing region.

Starting today, on Monday, November 7th, this storm could drop 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation from the Baja coast to the Ensenada inland foothills from late Monday night until early on Thursday, with higher amounts in the mountains.  

The system will tap moisture from the sub-tropics as it moves to the Baja one thousand race course.

The coldest-core of the system will begin invading, Tuesday.

Rain is expected to hit Mexico, starting Tuesday evening [actually started Tuesday mid-day], with as much as 1 foot of snow due in the upper Sierra San Pedro de Martir Mountains.

The snow level fell as low as 7,000 feet.  

The storm originated in the northern Pacific, Gulf of Alaska and will bring lots of 'polar' frigid-cold air to the home of Baja racing on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

It's possible temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below average in many areas of the race course. 

The storm also will generate strong winds Monday night and late Tuesday night, with gusts in the 25 mph to 35 mph range at the coast.

The combination of strong winds and heavy rain will produce hazardous driving conditions on local ranch roads.

Water traps, local flooding and road wash-outs are expected over the entire race course, this week.

Forecasters say their computer models indicate that the center of the storm system will arrive from the North Pacific on Tuesday and last into Friday.

“Our forecasts have come together this morning (Monday AM) this will be the tail of a strong system that impacts the state of Baja California and northern Sonora”, said Bert Strong, a BAJA Weather Service forecaster.

Parts of inland Ensenada have received decent rain in recent weeks. The region recorded below-average precipitation over the past two years, and the potential for wildland fires remained high, over the period.

Ensenada has recorded 2.09 inches of rain since Sept. 1, which is 1.30 inches above normal. Inland Baja California has received much more rainfall since the summer from Tropical Storm Kay.

Inland Ensenada elements of the race course saw over a foot of rainfall from the Tropical Storm over the summer.

Adding this weeks coming storm, onto the already saturated water courses, arroyos, streams and creeks, rain-water flooding through race day is guaranteed.

Many sections of the race course have already been bypassed by SCORE because they were impassable by SCORE race and chase vehicles, due to rain ruts and other obstacles provided by the heavy rains left by Tropical Storm Kay.

-RaceWeek Starts on Monday, November 14.

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+Week of Nov. 1-5.

Temperatures dropped, some rainfall covered the higher elevations of the race course

Snow, sleet and ice hit the highest elevations of the race course.

Some temperatures dropped 20 to 50 degrees!

This coming week, Nov. 7-10th, more rain and colder temperatures.

[Freezing isotherms (32 degrees F) level drops to 7,000 ft]

Wednesday, November 9, rainfall again over the race course>>>

 

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BAJA Weather Service Special Addendum

 

8AM November 8, 2022

File under the category, 'better late than never'...

The Baja California Civil Protection Department notifies its citizens:

"Protección Civil Baja California:    PRONÓSTICO METEOROLÓGICO MARTES 8 DE NOVIEMBRE  La CEPC en colaboración con el CICESE informan el pronóstico para este día en Baja California, con el paso de un frente frío se espera probabilidad de lluvias de ligeras a moderadas aisladas y descenso en las temperaturas en la región.  En Mexicali se esperan temperaturas agradables de entre 13° C y 27° C; mientras que Tecate oscilará entre 10° C y 20° C, y Tijuana entre 11º C y 20º C; experimentando vientos de 35 a 45 K/h, así como probabilidad de lluvias ligeras aisladas en los tres municipios .  En Rosarito las temperaturas serán entre 11° C y 20° C; mientras que en Ensenada, las temperaturas serán de 11° C a 20° C; y San Quintín tendrá temperaturas de entre 12° C y 23° C, con vientos de 35 a 45 K/h y posibilidad de lluvias ligeras a moderadas aisladas en los tres municipios.  La CEPC exhorta a la población en general a protegerse de los cambios bruscos de temperatura, mantenerse abrigada y conducir con precaución." 

 

BAJA Weather Service

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