UPDATE! Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025
STRONG SOLAR FLARE AND CME: New sunspot 4300 erupted today (Dec.4th @ 0250 UTC), producing a strong M6-class solar flare. At the same time, the American US Air Force detected a Type II solar radio burst, which means a CME is probably emerging from the blast site. Meanwhile, giant sunspot complex 4294-4296 remains ominously quiet.
From Dec. 2 ,2025
WXMAN GEOMAGNETIC STORMS PREDICTED
A new NOAA model of yesterday's X2-class solar flare and CME suggests that the CME might not miss Earth after all.
The storm cloud could graze our planet on Dec. 3rd. Moreover, the CME will scoop up a solar wind stream just ahead of it, adding heft to the potential impact. G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 3-4.
CARRINGTON WOULD BE IMPRESSED
On Sept. 1, 1859, English astronomer Richard Carrington sketched the most famous sunspot in history. While Carrington was watching an image of the sun projected on a screen, the sunspot produced a blinding X45-class solar flare, followed two days later by a planet-wide geomagnetic storm.
We call it the "Carrington Event."
How does today's giant sunspot compare to Carrington's? Here is the answer: The image above shows Carrington's drawing of the 1859 sunspot inserted to scale on a Dec. 2, 2025, image of sunspot complex 4294-4296. They're about the same size.
The surface area of Carrington's sunspot was ~2300 millionths of the solar disk. The surface area of 4294-4296 is 2080 millionths, about 90% as large. To be clear, 4294-4296 is actually two sunspots. Their close proximity makes them appear as a single behemoth--an unfair advantage vs. Carrington.
Even so, strong explosions are likely. The crowding of the two sunspots' magnetic canopies raises the odds of reconnection and an X-flare of their own. Any explosions today will be geoeffective.
WXMAN is providing periodic race reports, leading to the 2026 CABO 1000.
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